Welch securing political terrain ahead of State Central Committeeman election 

“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought,” the Chinese warrior philosopher Sun Tzu wrote some 2,400 years ago.  

Or as Speaker of the Illinois House Emanuel “Chris” Welch likes to put it, “Winners do the work.”  

With six weeks remaining before candidates begin filing nominating petitions, Welch has done the work and appears favorably situated to attain Sun Tzu’s ideal of victory without confrontation. He has crafted a show of support that may well avoid an actual battle for the 7th District seat on the influential Democratic State Central Committee.  

On March 17, voters will cast ballots for both a Democratic State Central Committeeman and a Committeewoman in each of 17 districts throughout Illinois. 

Like Welch, State Senate President Don Harmon of Oak Park has had his eye on the coveted seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Danny K. Davis. Both are veteran politicians in powerful state offices, with well-funded campaign committees and solid political power bases. 

Unlike Welch, however, Harmon has not announced any endorsements for his candidacy, and that may prove to be decisive in a contest that may never become a race.  

Welch hit the ground running July 31, the day Davis announced he would not run for re-election to Congress or the State Central Committee. In less than 24 hours, he had announced endorsements from 18 elected officials, including Davis. By Labor Day he had more than three dozen endorsements and now has more than 50. 

It is a display not merely of quantity, but of quality. Many of the endorsements are from key office holders in areas outside his and Harmon’s suburban power bases, including nearly all of Chicago’s sprawling West Side, most of downtown Chicago, and all of the southeast and southwest side areas in the 7th District. 

“That was his strategy, to not have a race,” said one veteran westside political figure, who asked not to be named.  

“A lot of people talk politics, not a lot of people do politics,” said C. B. Johnson, another long time westside political activist and social welfare advocate who’s run for public office before. “You can’t get into this business not expecting the unexpected.” 

Welch has dominated the narrative throughout, producing a growing drum beat of inevitability, if not invincibility, as he publicly counts up his supporters. While Danny Davis’s imprimatur was significant, it is now backed up by an impressive roster of influential Chicago ward political figures well versed in the task of getting voters motivated and to the polls.  

On Sept. 10, Welch announced four more endorsements, from Chicago alderpersons Jessie Fuentes (26th), Jeylú Gutiérrez (14th) Timmy Knudsen (43rd), and Lamont Robinson (4th). 

There are 21 Chicago wards that are totally or partially within the boundaries of the Illinois 7th District, and Welch has secured the support of one or more key figures in 14, including 10 ward committeepersons directly responsible for getting out the vote.  (The 4th, 15th, 22nd, 26th and 43rd wards have small voter percentages within the 7th District).  

After Welch’s initial endorsements in August, Harmon released a brief statement through a spokesperson that he was “planning to circulate petitions as I have in the past several elections, and I’ll evaluate the field as we approach filing (deadline).”   

In a statement Monday, Harmon said, “A constituent in our community was killed by an ICE agent on Friday under questionable circumstances. There will be plenty of time for politics, and I trust Democrats will give their attention when that time comes. For now, I’m evaluating the race, and paying attention to elected officials who have voiced their preference. I’m focusing on the pressing issues before us, not spending my time asking my friends to choose between the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate.” 

The westside politico believes Welch has established a dominating political alliance throughout most of the westside wards. 

“I don’t think Harmon expected Welch to go out and box him out so early,” the westside politico said, adding, “I don’t believe Harmon reached out to any of them for endorsements.” 

“I’m not surprised he’s getting the quality endorsements,” Johnson said of Welch. “I endorsed him. I’ve watched him grow and mature (as a politician). We all do, when you go into this business. It’s on the job learning.”  

Welch has made no secret that he intends to maintain African American leadership in the 7th District. “He clearly made a point that this seat should be held by a Black person,” the westside politico said.  

Danny Davis, Johnson said, was a man who “has always been about poor people, black, white, green or blue. He wants someone there who will serve the people.” Welch, Johnson said, is seen as the person best able to continue that legacy, and Welch is aggressively seconding that notion. 

“Across the country, we see how communities of color are being silenced,” Welch said in an online post. “That’s why in Illinois, it’s so important that our diverse communities always have a seat at the table on our local government boards, in our State Capitol, in Washington, and within our Democratic Party.” 

Political force multipliers 

While endorsements alone don’t guarantee victory, used well they can play a key role. There is a proxy aspect to quality political endorsements, where elected officials or organizations vouch for another candidate. It is a political force multiplier that can extend the reach of a candidate beyond their established power base. 

“You’d rather have them than not, have people on your side,” the westside politico said. 

“That’s an important factor,” said Dick Simpson, former 44th Ward Alderman and UIC political science professor emeritus. “If they’ll put in the work, put your name on palm cards, use the endorsement in direct mail, (then) the support of any party people does make a big difference.” 

“Being urged to vote by someone you trust and respect and have voted for can be influential,” Simpson said. “If (voters) are handed a card from the local ward organization saying vote for Welch, they’ll tend to do it.” 

‘Going door to door’ 

Johnson said local political organizations make a big difference in West Side political races. The widespread support Welch has attracted will provide him surrogates who will “go to the door” in large areas across the West Side and elsewhere in the 7th District. 

“Politics has changed a lot,” Johnson said. “The ward bosses are gone.” But, he added, “You can’t discount the door. You have to go to (a voter’s) door. It’s a sign of respect to knock on my door. To ask for my vote. It means something to people.”  

Simpson called the Democratic state central committee “a pretty obscure office,” and said the largely unknown nature of the party position makes it a good fit for an endorsement motivated campaign. While the office is a plum for many ambitious Illinois politicians, he said a majority of voters aren’t aware of its existence.  

“Voters don’t have a high degree of concern about who is in it, about who gets elected,” Simpson said. That can play to the advantage of someone willing to do the political shovel work in the field, where the more motivated voters turn out in an otherwise low turnout election. 

“There are fewer people (voting) in primaries,” Simpson said, adding, “though in the 7th District, this will be slightly different.” 

“I think they both want to have a say on the state central committee,” Simpson said of Welch and Harmon. “Or a say on who is in the chair.” 

In the end, though, all three agreed that, politically, the point is not to win a primary, but to avoid having a primary. As Sun Tzu also tutored, “To subdue the (opponent) without fighting is the acme of skill.” 

“That’s the easiest way to win a race,’ said Simpson. 

Johnson let out a chuckle when he noted his 2024 primary loss to 29th Ward incumbent Alderman Chris Taliaferro by just 308 votes, a slim 2.8 percent margin. 

“If I’d been able to keep Chris Taliaferro off the ballot, I’d have done it,” Johnson said. 

It is looking more and more like Welch will have the final say on the central committee seat, after putting Harmon in a position where, as he “evaluates the field” with filing time approaching, he will see no one but Welch — surrounded by an army of political support — and find himself pondering yet another adage by an ancient Chinese sage. 

“Who wishes to fight must first count the cost.”  

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