The election is a mere month away. No one knows which way it will go, least of all the pundits and pollsters. The pundits worship at the altar of polls, even though the polling results are topsy-turvy. One day Trump is ahead in the swing states. The next day it’s Harris. The one report I haven’t seen from mainstream media is why the polls are so unreliable and what’s wrong with their methodology.
I’ll be voting in my 14th presidential election (going back to 1972) and I have yet to be contacted by a polling firm in 52 years. How about you? Maybe they always contact the same people. Jury duty never has any trouble finding me, but pollsters? Crickets.
Mainstream media obsesses over polls, mostly because they’re lazy. What the “polls” seem to measure are misperceptions — especially about the economy, which has been strong and getting stronger through the last four years though, allegedly, “a lot of people think it’s weak,” supported by a firehose of lies from Trump (and social media).
Rather than report on the actual economy, media prefers to report on the misperceptions because “perception is reality.” Not true. Misperception only carries an aura of credibility when media reinforces it by reporting the misperception as if it were reality, as if it were true. The actual truth, meanwhile, gets under-reported. Perception is not reality; it’s self-fulfilling prophecy.
In spite of all that, the pro-democracy, pro-truth side has a lot going for it. Here are the reasons for hope and confidence with one month remaining:
- The pro-democracy, pro-rights, pro-people side is united behind one candidate. That wasn’t the case until Joe Biden’s selfless, noble act, withdrawing from the race on July 21, made it possible.
- This side is energized, enthusiastic, and mobilized by its candidates, who emphasize the positive and telling the truth. The other side is mobilized, too, but not energized and enthusiastic. They’re angry and aggrieved, emphasizing the negative and spreading what is demonstrably false.
- Based on the results of all but one presidential election since 1988, there are more voters on the pro-democracy side, which seems resolved and determined to vote in record numbers.
- The pro-democracy side held a joyful, substantive, inspiring convention while the anti-democracy side wallowed in cult worship, painting an ugly picture of a doomed country and world, based on wildly inaccurate imaginings of conspiracy theorists and well-practiced liars.
- Kamala Harris, surprised many (including me), kicking ass in the Sept. 10 debate, showing impressive command of the issues and humiliating the other candidate, who is clearly either mentally ill or in cognitive decline … or both.
- The pro-democracy candidate is charismatic, articulate, capable, and preaches optimism and hope. The other candidate is a cranky, morally-impaired has-been who spews pessimism and has proven he’s fit only for prison. The good news is, voters always choose the more charismatic candidate.
- Many more Republicans will be voting for the Democrat this time than the other way around.
- The truth about the economy is that inflation has been dramatically reduced to just over 2 percent, with 16 million jobs added in the last four years, compared to a net loss of jobs (2.7 million) during the other candidate’s previous term. The numbers are readily available at FactCheck.org.
- Things have fallen into place and have gone as well as the pro-democracy side could have hoped for.
What the other side has going for it:
- Misinformation and conspiracy theories
- Voter suppression efforts
- Mainstream media “normalizing” their campaign’s steady stream of malicious falsehoods
- Deeply flawed polling
- Misogyny and racism
- Lies that exploit people’s fears and biases
- Practice at overturning elections when they lose (although it didn’t work last time)
I wouldn’t bet against democracy. There is no room for complacency or over-confidence, but I’m betting more Americans are committed to preserving democracy than overturning it, and that most Americans want to be governed by someone competent who is trying to make life better for everyone, not just the privileged few.
With one month left, the indicators are pointing toward democracy. That’s our cue.
Now — as it should be — it’s up to us.