With the announcement that Cong. Danny Davis would retire after his current term, a torrent of Democratic candidates has joined the race to replace him, competing in a crowded Democratic primary on March 17 that will effectively select the 7th District’s representative in this overwhelmingly blue district.
With Davis having held the seat for 30 years this is a once in multiple generations opportunity to win a seat in Congress. The 13 Democratic candidates for the seat represent an array of political views, levels of experience and races. And they seek election in a vast congressional district which has seen substantial demographic shifts as neighborhoods around the Loop have increased with a well-to-do, largely white population, even as the Black population of the West Side has diminished and a growing percentage of Proviso Township has become Hispanic.
What’s the impact of that demographic change? Why are voting habits more important than total population groups? How will substantial outside campaign funding impact the final month of the race? What’s the impact of key endorsements and the planned turn-out-the-vote campaigns a handful of those endorsements will bring?
Finally, in a nation actively rejiggering congressional districts with an eye on the midterm elections in November, is the Illinois 7th District still meant to be a “Black district”? And what does that mean?
Veteran Chicago political journalist Laura Washington penned an intriguing column in the Chicago Tribune Jan. 26, pondering the possibility that demographic shifts and a crowded Democratic primary field might combine to throw the election to a white candidate. There are 3 white candidates in the race.
Noting the district’s 53 years of Black leadership — 30 under Davis — Washington said demographic shifts have seen the district “…evolve from a predominantly Black domain on Chicago’s West Side to a sprawling territory that includes downtown areas such as Fulton Market, South Side wards, Chinatown and the west suburbs of Oak Park, Maywood and River Forest.”
Wealthy real estate executive Jason Friedman, she said, “could change the racial equation, as the only white candidate who brings significant money and clout,” which, combined with “the large number of high-profile and established Black politicians might fracture the vote.”
“If Friedman can galvanize and consolidate the white vote, he could prevail,” she noted. “It’s a very big “if,” but it raises interesting questions.
Cancellation
Washington’s column centered on two issues: the possibility of “cancellation,” in which groupings of candidates with similar characteristics — progressive, establishment, white, Black — battle for the same pool of limited primary votes. There is also the clear desire of Black political leadership to retain control of the 7th Congressional district.
“That’s one of the things that can happen with a large field,” said Dr. Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at U of I Springfield, who’s studied Illinois politics since the 1970s. “In races with smaller candidate fields, it’s easier to see the effect,” Redfield said. “If it’s (three candidates) and the two moderates are eating up each other’s votes … the progressive with 40 percent is in pretty good shape.”
There are five progressives running, including activist Kina Collins, union official Anthony Driver, immigrant rights organizer Anabel Mendoza, human resources executive Jazmin Robinson and former White House advisor and attorney Reed Showalter.
An effort has begun in Oak Park to unify progressive support behind Collins.
There are several more established, moderate candidates, including three currently holding elected office; state Rep. LaShawn K. Ford, Melissa Conyers-Ervin, the Chicago city treasurer since 2019, two term Forest Park mayor Rory Hoskins and former County Commissioner Richard Boykin.
There are three putative front runners: Ford, who has been endorsed by both Davis and Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch; Conyears-Ervin, who ran against Davis in 2024; and Friedman, who has raised $1.8 million.
Friedman presents himself as a seasoned businessman who creates jobs and gets things done. Ford has stressed his legislative experience, his networks and his record of standing up for people’s interests. Conyears-Ervin portrays herself as a fighter ready to take on the Trump administration and protect safety net programs. Conyears-Ervin is also the recent recipient of a $2.8 million cash infusion from the controversial American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Then there’s Collins, who has little money but solid name recognition from running against Davis three times, including a 45.7 percent performance in the 2022 primary. And Dr. Thomas Fisher, an ER physician who had strong 4th quarter fundraising and who has been endorsed by Cong. Lauren Underwood.
Along with Friedman and Showalter, the other white male in the primary is former Congressional staffer and professor David Ehrlich.
Experts Growing Community Media spoke with said that while it’s difficult to predict a winner, there are key indicators, including candidates with effective political organizations, quality endorsements and who is able to turn out to vote.
Washington, also a political analyst for ABC 7 Chicago, said a crowded field for a Congressional seat that is open for the first time in many years is not unusual.
Such races have different dynamics than regular elections. There have been three such Democratic Congressional primaries in recent years, the 1st district in 2022, and the 6th and 14th in 2018.
The 1st district primary had 17 candidates, 11 of whom didn’t break five percent. Only four reached double digits, constituting 73.5 percent of the vote, as Jonathan Jackson won with 28.18 percent.
In the 6th district, seven Democratics vied to take on GOP Congressman Peter Roskam. Again, four broke double digits, accounting for 86.4 percent, as Sean Casten won with 29.5 percent.
Lauren Underwood was the exception, winning 57.35 percent in the seven-candidate 14th district primary. None of the other six got above 13.4 percent.
The 7th Congressional primary is distinct from those races, having not only many candidates, but more competing political and ethnic categories — Black, white and Hispanic, progressive and moderate, “new guard” and institutionalist.
Money
Redfield said voters want to know a candidate and assess them. “Is this a self-funder who has no policy or political service,” he said. “Or (someone who is) enthusiastic but not resourced or experienced in building a campaign.”
Washington said money has its limits and can’t replace traditional face to face retail politics. “The money is important for lesser known candidates, like Friedman,” she said. “No one knows who he is.”
“If voters see a lot of mailers, but not direct contact, that could backfire,” she said. “People also want to know that person. How can I trust this person? It’s about that ‘touch.’”
“You have to go to (a voter’s) door,” said C.B. Johnson, a long time West Side political activist. “It’s a sign of respect to knock on my door. To ask for my vote.”
Race and endorsements
Race- and racism- is aways a factor in Chicago politics, Washington allowed, though with some voters, she said, it’s less about race and more “I matter, my vote matters and my concerns matter.”
White voters in areas like Oak Park, she said, “respect the desire of African Americans to retain power,” but there is also the feeling that “I shouldn’t be overlooked.”
Race still matters, though, particularly to Black political leadership in this most unusual election cycle. House Speaker Welch, a resident of the district, is among other Black leaders like Davis making it clear they intend to maintain Black political control of the 7th District, and as many Black voices as possible on the Democratic State Central Committee.
That goal is supported by Illinois State Senate President Don Harmon, the white township committeeman for Oak Park.
“The 7th Congressional District in Illinois has been an important historically Black seat in Congress,” Harmon said. “The district has changed but it is still drawn to perform as a Black district and I expect that the Black political community in particular is going to dig in really deeply on ensuring Black representation continues. Ultimately it’s up to the voters, but I think that’s an important component. It would be a significant loss in Black representation.”
Ford’s campaign manager, Tumia Romero, said on Saturday that the campaign expects turnout to be between 78,000 to 80,000 votes, based on historical data. “We hope that it’s more than that, of course,” Romero said
According to the Illinois State Board of Elections, turnout was 86,158 in the 2024 primary, and 75,612 in the 2022 primary. While declining to provide specific numbers, Romero said Ford is ahead in the latest tracking poll received on Feb. 20.
“He’s still leading, despite (Conyers-Ervin and Friedman) each sending out 10 (negative direct mail) pieces.”
Besides running for the Democratic State Central Committee 7th District seat, Welch has endorsed Ford to replace Davis in the 7th Congressional seat.
Redfield said no serious politician of Welch’s stature makes endorsements lightly, saying, “When they put their name out there they’re expending political capital.”
Redfield said quality endorsements have a “value added” quality, enabling a candidate to “piggyback” onto another politician’s organizational strengths. “If the endorsement brings with it something that adds value,” he said, like communications and ground support, “they carry weight.”
“If they’ll put in the work, put your name on palm cards, use the endorsement in direct mail, (then) the support of any party people does make a big difference,” said Dick Simpson, a former Chicago alderman and political science professor.
“With endorsements has to come a political operation with people to help,” Washington said. In the case of Welch, she said, “That’s significant.”
Welch’s endorsement of Ford, Washington said, “could be the secret sauce that makes the difference.”
Turn out
Redfield said while he was not an expert on West Side Chicago Congressional politics, his “sense of this district is it’s got geographical divisions,” including an older, long established Black West Side and newer residential sections on the near west side.
The question, he said, is “What kind of electorate is going to show up.”
With no more party bosses, he said, “you’ve got to motivate people and get them out to vote.” Ultimately the question political operatives look to answer is, “who’s going to show up at the polls?”
According to one political expert in the field of survey research, an Oak Park resident who asked not to be named, the answer is not found in general population statistics. Recent U.S. Census data, he said, shows ethnic percentages in the 7th district are “approximately 36 percent Black, 29 percent white, 21 percent Latino, and 10 percent Asian.”
Then there’s the racial profile of the actual primary voting population, he said, and “Those demographics are different.”
Experienced campaign professionals, he said, “estimate this number to be about 40 percent Black, 40 percent white, 10 percent Latino, and the rest being a mix of Asian voters and other demographics. They use past voting results to predict this outcome.”
“As far as the estimates for the electorate, each campaign does their own prediction, so there’s no exact source for it,” he said. “It’s just a common knowledge thing that those of us in the profession can acquire from our colleagues.”
“You cannot exactly predict the electorate until it votes,” he said.
A study released in January by Unite America Institute (UAI) sheds some light on that disparity. It found that the voting populace that votes in primaries is different from general elections.
The UAI, a nonprofit organization “that seeks to encourage nonpartisan civic engagement and political participation” found that “self-identified liberals were 20 percent of the population, yet were 29 percent of “decisive primary voters,” roughly “1.5 times more representation than parity would suggest.”
The greatest disparity was with Republican primary voters, which while notable, has little relevance to the deep blue 7th District.
Young Millennial and Gen Z voters, UAI found, “were notably absent” in primaries, with 18- to 25-year-olds comprising nine percent of the population but just three percent of primary voters; 25- to 39-year-olds “comprised 25 percent of the population but only 11 percent of the primary electorate.”
Meanwhile, those 55 and over were 68 percent of the primary electorate despite being just 46 percent of the population.
Whites were 70 percent of the population but “constituted 84 percent of the primary electorate; Black voters 13 percent of the population but 11 percent of the primary electorate.
Under representation was even larger for Hispanic and Asian American voters, “three to four times less represented than their shares of the population,” the UAI found.
Washington, who has said she’s “not endorsing anyone in this race,” said she’s also not making any predictions. But two candidates, she opined, have an advantage, “at least in name recognition,” from currently holding office — Ford and Conyears-Ervin.
“They have bases where they’re somewhat known,” Washington said. And Ford, she said, “has a much higher (public) profile than the typical state legislator.”
Washington said “traditionalist” older Black voters, “would probably lean toward more moderate candidates.”
Allowing that “Danny Davis is progressive,” she said, “I think older Black voters in general are more conservative on some social issues,” and would “tend to support more traditionalist, older candidates, with mainstream political credentials, those who have held elective office.”
Bob Skolnik contributed reporting.
