Which “he”? Both, actually.
Trump (77) and Biden (81) have a similar probability of death (0.05 and 0.07 respectively), and almost identical life expectancies (87 and 86) per tables found on www.ssa.gov.
So does it matter should either of them die while in office? Succession is written into the constitution. It has happened before, a-plenty, roughly 17% of the time. In the course of our 46 presidencies eight vice presidents who assumed the presidency upon the death of the president.
Year – President – Vice President
1841 – W.H. Harrison – John Tyler
1850 – Z. Taylor – Millard Fillmore
1865 – A. Lincoln – Andrew Johnson
1881 – J. Garfield – Chester A. Arthur
1901 – W. McKinley – Theodore Roosevelt
1923 – W.G. Harding – Calvin Coolidge
1945 – F.D. Roosevelt – Harry S. Truman
1963 – J.F. Kennedy – Lyndon B. Johnson
(www.archives.gov/winter)
A total of 15 vice presidents — roughly 33% of our 46 presidencies — went on to become president (www.senate.gov). Some of their records have been exemplary. Think of Teddy Roosevelt battling monopolies and instituting national parks, Truman steering the free world through the conclusion of World War II, and Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” fueling the passage of civil rights legislation.
Succession is an integral part of leadership, in business, politics, or any other sphere of endeavor. Eight times the wheels of constitutional succession have turned for a presidential death, and the government kept on ticking.
So why all the wailing and gnashing of teeth? Yes, it is possible that either of our current presidential contenders might die in office, and a vice president might assume office. As of this writing we do not know Trump’s running mate. We’re familiar with Kamala Harris. She has been accomplishing things concerning environmental justice, drug enforcement, and generally shaking up the Washington patriarchy (www.whitehouse.gov). She is an attorney, and was attorney general for, and senator from, the state of California. Vice President Harris has recently traveled to 17 states. (www.presidency.ucsb.edu)
Conclusion: Let’s not use age as a reason to vote for, or against, a candidate for political office. There are other criteria on which to base our vote. Here’s the rub: we must not stay home, cop out, ignore everything, and otherwise fail to cast our ballot. Don’t be confused by polls. Quantity does matter. A 60% turnout of 100 voters is not the same mandate as 60% of 1,000 or 10,000.
Finally: Democracy is a noun, but voting is most definitely a verb.
Full disclosure: I am 71.
Karen Muriello
Oak Park