Analyzing the proposed River Forest zoning plan, the lack of data-supported projections raises concerns about its economic viability and infrastructure impact. Converting commercial districts into residential high-rises could strain infrastructure and services. Despite recognizing the need for a “what if” analysis, the ZBA committee failed to provide substantive data at the April 11 meeting. Additionally, [Village Administrator Matt] Walsh’s memo ignored key points from the River Forest Public Schools School District 90 Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections study, commissioned October 2022 (Village board packet on the River Forest website, D90 study, p. 80-108, memo, p. 9-28, https://www.vrf.us/uploads/cms/documents/events/04-11-24_ZBA_Packet.final_.pdf)
Several key factors challenge the assumptions of the proposed zoning changes: the influx of new families, housing stagnation, and the aging population. Without precise population estimates and understanding household dynamics, the plan risks worsening existing infrastructure strains without commensurate benefits.
First, concerns arise about impact fees required by village code today to be paid to the school system for any new residential developments, determined by expected student count based on bedrooms per residential unit. With the zoning changes eliminating the minimum bedroom requirement, the impact fees could potentially be reduced to zero, undermining benefits to the school system. Moreover, Mr. Walsh’s assertion that developers will allocate around 70% of their property tax bill toward school funding lacks specificity on how this tax bill is calculated, whether it includes rental or owned units. Understanding which property type generates more tax revenue for schools is crucial for informed decision-making on school funding and population dynamics.
Second, Mr. Walsh’s assertion about district-wide enrollment projections requires scrutiny. The demographer’s choice of using more conservative estimates over CMAP projections, which predict an increase of over 1,200 households in the next 35 years for River Forest, raises questions regarding the impact of the proposed zoning changes. This underscores the necessity for a “what if” scenario assessment before approving any zoning changes affecting household sizes and population densities. Fortunately, our school district has a robust model for such assessments (https://campussuite-storage.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/898838/03afb8bb-09b2-11e7-b6d9-22000bd8490f/2548841/0580157e-a804-11ed-911c-0e0ad5e4b86d/file/Recommendation%20for%20Kindergarten%20Program%20Model.FINAL.pdf).
Essentially, Mr. Walsh’s memo, which lacks supportive facts, underscores the necessity for an unbiased analysis of all data, avoiding selective interpretation to fit specific narratives. Assessing the complete dataset is crucial for making well-informed decisions moving forward.
Updating zoning regulations where necessary may be a positive step, but data-driven decisions are essential to safeguard the community’s long-term well-being amid urban development. Opposing rezoning until reliable data confirms tax stability helps prioritize public schools and community welfare, ensuring all village decisions rely on solid data, not hope.
Kelly Abcarian
River Forest