Odds on election 50-50 . . .

First time in 92 days . . .

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By Jim Bowman


What. Do. You. Know.

In a trend that began in July, the once-slumping odds that President Trump will win reelection have risen from 36% to an average of 50-50, with some gambling sites giving him a better than even chance of winning.

Oddschecker's Pete Watt said Friday that Trump's odds haven't been this positive since May 28, 92 days ago, and come on the morning after the president accepted the Republican Party's nomination to run for a second term.

Joe Biden still has a slight edge with the gamblers, at 52%. He had a 63% chance of winning in mid-July.

"This election has ebbed and flowed in favor of Trump, with plenty of observers beginning to write him off in the past few weeks," said the spokesman for the British betting comparison site.

"However, with Election Day now very much of the horizon and Trump officially confirmed as the Republican nominee, his campaign will be delighted at the timely comeback that is being reflected in the betting markets," he added.

Watt said that some betting sites have Trump beating Biden. "Some oddsmakers have even cut Trump"s odds to -110, demonstrative of a 52.38% likelihood of securing a second term," said his analysis.

Voters giving up on the guy in the basement?

Email: jimbowman7@aol.com Twitter: @BlitheSp

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Reader Comments

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Jim Bowman from CHICAGO  

Posted: September 3rd, 2020 6:30 AM

Damn. I read that wrong. It's $1.29 as Kindle. I can lend you that much.

Jim Bowman from CHICAGO  

Posted: September 3rd, 2020 6:27 AM

Nick P: Right on! I did a little book, Illinois Blues: How the Ruling Party Talks to Voters -- free now as Kindle! From which as a start for what you suggest, I will post a (small) chapter now and then. Later . . .

Nick Polido  

Posted: September 2nd, 2020 2:26 PM

How about a piece on some local issues? Maybe ask Don Harmon on where stands on Michael Madigan and the many corrupt politicians bankrupting our state. You also could ask Don about his fair tax proposal with no reforms associated with it!

Kevin Peppard  

Posted: September 2nd, 2020 2:25 PM

One can legally bet on who will win on at least two sites: Iowa Electronic Markets and PreditIt.com. The IRS limits how much you can bet on these academic study sites to $500 and $850, respectively. It's to test whether markets are better than pundits.The markets are inconsistent, with IEM having a 72%/27% split (under-priced a bit) and PredictIt at 57%/46% (a bit overpriced). Wall Streeters engage in this for bragging rights, not for the money. One could have made 40x one's money in the McCain/Obama election. Bet on McCain when he was priced at 5% of winning the nomination. When he got that, shift your money into Obama for the general election. Things are obviously very volatile in these situations. Put your money where your mouth is (which may involve betting against your choice). The only poll that counts is the one on November 3.

Jim Bowman from CHICAGO  

Posted: September 2nd, 2020 12:20 PM

My day is complete.

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: September 1st, 2020 7:15 PM

We'll fancy that, Jim. Everyone was wrong but you. Good catch.

Jim Bowman from CHICAGO  

Posted: September 1st, 2020 7:02 PM

More specifically as regards Consult is this, based on Saturday's release: "Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump 50% to 44% among likely voters following the Republican National Convention vs. a lead of 52% to 42% before it began. Trump cut into Biden's lead among suburbanites and grew his support among white voters, though he worsened his standing with voters of color. Biden's favorability numbers weakened while the president's remained steady. President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce ?" and he got one, emerging from the Republican National Convention with an improved standing against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, fueled by gains among white voters and those in the suburbs, though he still trails the former vice president nationwide. A new Morning Consult poll conducted Friday that asked 4,035 likely voters which candidate they would pick found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It marked a 4-point improvement from his standing heading into the convention on Aug. 23, when Biden led 52 percent to 42 percent. Friday's poll had a 2-point margin of error, compared with a 1-point margin of error for responses gathered among 4,810 likely voters on Aug. 23." from msn.com. Says Trump got a bump and dug in quite a bit, cutting Joe's lead in half, which is not half bad.

Jim Bowman from CHICAGO  

Posted: September 1st, 2020 6:56 PM

So Michael Moore is panicking? -- https://www.oakpark.com/Community/Blogs/9-1-2020/Michael-Moore-rattles-Dems'-cages,-warns-.-.-.-/ Plus, the Georgia count is not as you see it. -- https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.html A dizzying array.

Les Golden  

Posted: September 1st, 2020 5:22 PM

Hasn't anyone learned from 2016? The polls are worthless because people don't want to be chastised and worse for being politically incorrect. Continuing national events energize the groups that will propel DT to a greater victory than in 2016.

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: September 1st, 2020 11:40 AM

Today's morning Consult Poll showing battleground states Aug 10, before the conventions. In Arizona, Biden trailed 45-47; he is now up TEN points, 52-42. In Georgia, Biden trailed 46-47; he is now up 3 points, 49-46. in GEORGIA. In Wisconsin, Biden led 49-43 before the conventions and the Kenosha events. He has picked up 3 points since, while Trump is stagnant. Biden picked up 2 and Trump dropped 2 in Michigan. Only in Florida has Bidens lead diminished.

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 3:21 PM

ABC News/IPSOS poll.

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 2:51 PM

Look at CNN, Jim. I'm a bit tied up right now myself.

Jim Bowman from Chicago  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 2:28 PM

Bill, can you gimme a link? I'm getting tired running things down.

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 1:59 PM

He's down 3 percent in national polls since the convention, Jim.

Jim Bowman from Chicago  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 1:47 PM

Bill, say what? this 2 days ago, Wash Monthly: "Two new polls are in, and it looks like Donald Trump did get a measurable bounce from the GOP convention. Joe Biden, meanwhile, got a modest approval rating boost but no polling bounce from the Democratic convention. " CNN's man didn't think so 22 hrs ago. Ditto Internatl Bus. Times 22 hrs ago in re: handling virus. Town Hall was ecstatic 40 minutes ago. And finally, what I got ecstatic about and blogged, stands as far as I know: It's even-stephen for the betting gentry, marking a remarkable rise . . .

William Dwyer Jr.  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 11:06 AM

Jim, Trump is the only president in history to experience a negative bounce from the convention.

Jim Bowman from Chicago  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 10:06 AM

Dear Air and Space Recruiter*, How nice to hear from you again. Charming fellow! ================ *Better than your password!

Jim Bowman from Chicago  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 10:02 AM

Dear Jim C., You should be grateful to me for giving you an opening for talking about something other than Trump's rise in the polls. You're welcome. Yr friend Jim B.

U?is Spr?d?s  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 7:32 AM

I see that Jim Bowman has stopped glorifying his heroes in the leftist Social Democratic government of Sweden and is now cheering on President Trump. Remarkable consistency.

Jim Coughlin  

Posted: August 31st, 2020 1:57 AM

"Getting out" is what you want see? You claim to support CDC guidelines but appear to question Joe Biden's wise decision to not participate in the public rallies that the Trump campaign have been conducting where attendees are not observing social distancing and few wear masks. Did you watch the Thursday evening event on the White House grounds? Now that the administration has pressured the CDC to reduce testing it is going to be more difficult to contain the spread and conduct contract tracing. You're fooling yourself by thinking Trump is emulating the heart of a champion like Joe Lewis by pressing ahead with public events. Biden is not dodging voters or your candidate. He's demonstrating leadership by not jeopardizing the health of his supporters. He doesn't need his fragile ego constantly stroked like the pompous imbecile barnstorming across the country delivering a desperate message filled with empty outrage to a sick and divided nation. Let's wait for the debates and the September 8 release of Michael Cohen's book. You are free to risk your own health but keep in mind the welfare of others and those who will provide treatment if you contract Civic 19.

Jim Bowman from Chicago  

Posted: August 30th, 2020 10:44 PM

Jim C., Had no intent to pillory safety-first national advice, nor even his being in his basement and not getting out among voters. It's how I think of him. It's an image his handlers are offering us all, which worked for a while, now not so much. He can run but he can't hide, Joe Louis said of his next opponent, with a reputation for escaping punishment. Goes for Joe.

Neal Buer from Oak Park  

Posted: August 30th, 2020 7:30 PM

I think that Joe Biden will win Illinois. He needs to tout his accomplishments over the last 47 years in government.

Jim Coughlin  

Posted: August 30th, 2020 7:06 PM

The "man in the basement" is cheap shot at Joe Biden by Jim Bowman who is parroting nonsense spewed by Donald Trump. Bowman ridicules someone who is taking precautions that have been advocated by the CDC and respected health experts. Is he calling for more super spreader events that have resulted in deaths and serious health problems for survivors? Reckless and irresponsible behavior have hindered efforts to contain the virus. I salute those who follow the guidelines that will help our country recover from the virus that has been so devastating.

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