It’s not easy to predict the outcome of a referendum. There is no sophisticated periodic polling like in a state or national election. Newspaper and civic organization endorsements just aren’t that influential.
District 97’s referendum takes place on April 5th and there are no other important elections. District 200 is uncontested, and the VMA juggernaut will roll over the hapless unaffiliated candidates. Turnout will be low. That’s good for passage. I was on the Board of District 97 and our referendum got more votes than any prior referendum ever. Unfortunately, that election took place in November 1988 which was a presidential election, and we lost by 10,000 votes.
There are a lot of yard signs in support of the referendum, and there are hardly any signs in opposition. That’s because lot’s of ‘No” voters are embarrassed to not support the education of little kids. It’s hard for them to look their neighbors in the eye and tell them saving a couple of hundred dollars is worth whacking their kids ‘ education. That’s why pre-election canvassing is not very reliable. People tell the canvasser they are a “Yes” and then vote “No” under the protection of the Australian ballot.
The best chance for passage is to get all of the parents, grandparents and close friends of school age children to vote “Yes”, and pray for a foot of snow on April 5th.